World Peace Forum ｜ Japan completely chooses the United States？ Expert： It is too early to draw a conclusion.

　　Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide has been in office for nearly a year, and the Japan-US alliance has been further strengthened. Japan’s diplomacy in the post-Abe era is facing a new situation, and Sino-Japanese relations are also undergoing tests.

　　"Has Sino-Japanese relations reached a crossroads?" At the 9th World Peace Forum, which opened on July 3rd, Shi Xiong, Minister Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Japanese Embassy in China, said in response to The Paper’s question: "There is a saying that Sino-Japanese relations may be heading in the direction of deterioration, but we have not emphasized the relations with the United States and despised the relations with neighboring countries including China and South Korea."

　　However, from the "2+2" meeting of US and Japanese foreign ministers’ defense chiefs to the summit talks, and the recent repeated remarks about Taiwan by senior Japanese officials, Japan has strengthened its alliance with the United States while challenging China’s core interests on many issues.

　　"Suga Yoshihide is not necessarily a hardliner to China, but he can’t effectively restrain hardliners and conservatives, and may even use these people to cater to some voters intentionally or unintentionally." During the meeting, Yang Bojiang, director of the Institute of Japanese Studies of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told The Paper whether Japan would completely abandon its foreign policy of maintaining a roughly balanced relationship between China and the United States in the future. Although it is impossible to make a decision, if it completely leans towards the United States, it will be "dead end" in East Asia.

　　Japan’s "split body and mind"?

　　"Polls show that the Japanese people have a bad impression of China, but a considerable number of Japanese, especially young people, believe that Sino-Japanese relations are very important to both countries and the Asia-Pacific region." Shi Xiong, the Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Minister of the Japanese Embassy in China, pointed out the negative side of Japanese public opinion on China at the World Peace Forum without hesitation.

　　In an interview with The Paper last December, the Japanese ambassador to China, Chui Xiufu, also talked about the contrast of mutual affection between Chinese and Japanese people. In view of the reasons and ways to reverse the situation, Chui Xiufu said, "I hope China can study it well. Of course, we are willing to think with China. "

　　Yang Bojiang bluntly said in the panel discussion of "Sino-Japanese relations: jointly promoting prosperity and peace in the Asia-Pacific region" at this World Peace Forum that Japan generally has bad relations with neighboring countries and needs self-reflection. As soon as this statement came out, the laughter and discussion in the audience were repeated. Shimizu Shihong also showed an awkward smile, but he still pointed out that the biggest reason for Japan’s poor public opinion on China is the differences between the two countries on the Diaoyu Islands issue, and Japanese media reports also played a role in fueling the situation.

　　When answering The Paper’s question "How to improve the folk feelings of the two countries", Shi Xiong said that China and Japan are facing some difficult problems together, such as the COVID-19 epidemic, climate change and the aging of young children. If the two countries work together to solve the problem, they can get to know each other better in practical actions, and at the same time strengthen communication between governments.

　　It is self-evident that Chinese and Japanese folk feelings fluctuate with the changes of bilateral relations. Has the current Sino-Japanese relationship reached a turning point? When The Paper threw this question at Chinese experts, they thought it was too early to draw a conclusion.

　　"Frankly speaking, there are still some variables, among which the United States is the biggest variable." Hu Jiping, vice president of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said that there are still uncertainties in the Biden administration’s China policy and its demands on Japan. After all, Sino-US relations are an important factor affecting Sino-Japanese relations. Another variable is the Japanese government’s strategic judgment and choice.

　　Yang Bojiang described Japan as actually in a state of "split body and mind". "The spirit is very hard and the body is very real." Japan stands in the same camp as the United States in security and is embedded in the strategic track of the United States, but in economic terms, Japan’s "decoupling" from China will lose the resources and opportunities to maintain prosperity and development.

　　Sino-Japanese relations have long been in a situation of "cold politics and hot economy". Even during the epidemic period of more than a year, the economic and trade exchanges between the two countries still performed well. According to the latest trade statistics released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance, in May this year, Japan’s imports and exports to China both hit new highs in the same month since 1979. The White Paper on China’s Economy and Japanese Enterprises (2021 Edition) recently released by the Japan Chamber of Commerce in China also pointed out that 63.5% of Japanese-funded enterprises in China still made profits under the epidemic situation.

　　It can be seen that Sino-Japanese relations are composed of multiple levels, with differences in politics and security and cooperation in economy and development.

　　Japan’s remarks on China are "real and false"

　　Suga Yoshihide, who started from the bottom of politics, has been questioned that diplomacy is its weak link since he took office, and Japanese media have also commented that "Kan diplomacy" lacks personal characteristics.

　　In fact, Suga Yoshihide took the post of Prime Minister under the banner of inheriting Abe’s line. In less than a year, the report card of "Kan Diplomacy" is not lacking. He not only became the first foreign head of state to meet face to face since Biden took office in the United States, but also led Japan to actively participate in regional cooperation and signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) with China, ASEAN and other countries.

　　It is worth mentioning that Japan is still actively promoting "vaccine diplomacy" despite the slow vaccination in China. On June 2, Japan co-hosted the online "COVAX Vaccine Summit" with GAVI, with more than 40 countries participating. At the meeting, Suga Yoshihide promised to provide the organization with an additional 88 billion yen (about 5.129 billion yuan), and at the same time said that he would consider transferring some locally produced AstraZeneca vaccines to developing countries.

　　Obviously, Japan is making efforts to create an international strategic environment, but the trend of improving relations with its neighbors is relatively rare. The warming pace of Sino-Japanese relations accelerated after the G20 summit in 2019, but soon the clouds appeared again.

　　"Although emphasize on China policy ‘ Stable Japan-China relations are very important ’ However, there are not many positive measures, but there are many negative trends. " Yang Bojiang pointed out that this is a new feature of Suga Yoshihide’s foreign policy on the premise of inheriting Abe. Kan government re-tightens the chain of Japan-US alliance, and follows the strategy of the United States participating in the game of great powers, which includes multilateral checks and balances against China. The objective reason for this policy trend is that the COVID-19 epidemic has accelerated the process of great changes in some aspects, Japan’s strength and development advantages have been further weakened, and Japan’s foreign strategic mentality has become more sensitive and fragile.

　　In addition to multilateral checks and balances, there are also voices exaggerating the so-called "China threat" in Japan. Recently, Defense Minister Nobuo Kishida and Deputy Defense Minister Taixiu Zhongshan have also made false remarks about Taiwan. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin criticized this at a press conference on June 29th, saying that some Japanese politicians ignored the fact of peaceful development in China and made excuses for "Japan, which had committed the crime of militaristic aggression" to loosen its military ties.

　　Japanese senior officials’ remarks about China’s internal affairs aroused great public concern, and Yang Bojiang thought that the background of these remarks was "real and false". "Reality" means that Japan’s economic security is highly dependent on sea lanes. Under the background of insufficient strategic mutual trust between China and Japan, Japan is "all plants and soldiers". The "emptiness" lies in Japanese politicians, such as Tarō Kōno and Nobuo Kishi, who say such "hard words" to cater to the domestic atmosphere, and can score points as a political operation.

　　Of course, there are different voices within the Japanese government. Nikai Toshihiro, the secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, is second only to the president in the party and is committed to friendly exchanges and cooperation between China and Suga Yoshihide. "We need to talk to Chinese, and Nikai Toshihiro is our backbone." In an article published in The Economist in May this year, the British newspaper recorded the words of former Japanese diplomat and Suga Yoshihide’s special adviser, Miyaka Bangyan. However, there are only a handful of politicians like the second order in the LDP.

　　Hu Jiping told The Paper that Suga Yoshihide did not represent him alone, and many Japanese politicians, including Abe, had similar views on China. Even if the prime minister changes hands, the Liberal Democratic Party will still be in power, and China policy will not change much. But overall, the future Sino-Japanese relations are not so reassuring.

　　"At present, the complicated factors in Sino-Japanese relations have increased, but the mainstream of Sino-Japanese friendly cooperation and the essence of mutual benefit and win-win have not changed." China’s ambassador to Japan, Kong Xuanyou, published a signed article in the July issue of the-China Cultural Exchange Association, writing that the two sides should take the opportunity of welcoming the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations next year to revisit their initial intentions, lay a solid foundation, eliminate interference and jointly open up a bright future for bilateral relations.