The situation in Idlib province in northwestern Syria, which is heavily besieged, has turned for the better because of the latest talks between Russian and Turkish leaders.
According to a report by CNN)9 on September 18th, after the previous day’s talks in Sochi, Russian and Turkish leaders agreed to set up a non-military buffer zone in Idlib province, Syria, in order to separate the Syrian government forces from the local rebels.
According to the agreement, the non-military buffer zone in Idlib province is about 15 to 20 kilometers wide, including tanks, rocket launching systems, mortar launchers and other heavy weapons and "extremist militants" will be evacuated from this area. After the non-military buffer zone came into effect on October 15th, Russian troops supporting the Syrian government and Turkish troops supporting some anti-government forces will organize patrols in the local area.
Within a few days, the situation in Idlib changed suddenly, which seemed unexpected, but it was reasonable.
Within 10 days, the situation changed suddenly.
Idlib province, located in the northwest of Syria, is the last important territory held by the rebels in the country. In the past few weeks, Syria has insisted on "recovering every inch of territory" and joined forces with Russian troops to attack around Idlib. War is on the verge.
However, around this "last battle", the international community criticized everywhere.
Turkey, many western countries and the United Nations have repeatedly warned that if the Idlib war starts, it will cause a huge humanitarian crisis.
According to media statistics, there are still nearly 3 million people living in Idlib province, including 1 million children. The recent escalation of tensions has led to the displacement of more than 30,000 people.
At the summit of Russia, Iran and Turkey held on September 7th, the differences between Turkey and Russia were highlighted around Idlib "to fight or not to fight".
After the summit, Russia and Syria continued their air strikes in Idlib, while Turkey, under the pressure of public opinion, stepped up its efforts to dispatch troops and arm pro-Turkish rebels in Idlib.
But only 10 days later, Russia and Turkey reached an agreement.
"Through this agreement, I believe that we will prevent a serious humanitarian crisis in Idlib." Turkish President Erdogan stressed the value of the above agreement to reporters in Sochi, Russia on the 17th.
According to the Russian media Tass news agency, the Russian Defense Minister confirmed that no new military operations will be carried out in Idlib province.
Russia and Turkey have their own problems.
Behind the rapid agreement between Turkey and Russia is their own unspeakable secrets.
On the one hand, Turkey, which lacks support, is unable to confront the Russian-Syrian army head-on.
Wei Min, a researcher at the Institute of West Asia and North Africa of China Academy of Social Sciences, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) during the 6th International Forum on Asia and the Middle East sponsored by the Middle East Institute of Shanghai International Studies University that under the current situation, the United States has no intention to support the rebels in Syria on a large scale, and Turkey, which is deeply mired in the Lira crisis, may not have the energy to deeply participate in the military operations in Idlib.
On the European side, "in the context of Brexit, building economic relations with various regions of the world is an important concern for Britain at present, and Britain will have no intention of deeply intervening in Syrian military operations." Eugene Rogan, director of the Middle East Center of Oxford University in the UK, added to The Paper at the 6th Asia and Middle East International Forum that French action in Middle East affairs is also limited.
On the other hand, Russia, which seems to be winning, is also worried. Russia, which has twice announced its withdrawal from Syria, has suffered a lot in the Syrian battlefield in the past three years. Later in the day when the agreement was reached, a Russian Il -20 military plane was accidentally hit and crashed by a Syrian S-200 defense system intended to intercept Israeli missiles, killing all 15 people on board.
"For Russia, the best solution is that the opposition armed forces in Idlib have surrendered under heavy pressure and then been reorganized into a part of the Syrian government forces." Gong Zheng, assistant researcher of Middle East Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told The Paper that the current new Russian-Turkish agreement is not far from Russia’s best plan on the whole, and it is a better way to safeguard Russia’s interests.
In addition, according to analysts quoted by The New York Times, by suspending military operations in Idlib, Russia also hopes to take this opportunity to give the Syrian government a more favorable opportunity in the upcoming political consultation process and avoid a more negative impact on the Syrian government due to a war that caused a huge humanitarian disaster.
Can setting a non-military buffer zone bring peace?
Although Turkey and Russia have not yet determined the specific details of establishing a non-military buffer zone, and Russia still needs to negotiate and coordinate with the Syrian government, the tense situation has eased with the conclusion of the Russian-Turkish agreement.
Robert Ashley, director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, optimistically predicted that the talks between Russian and Turkish leaders on the situation in Idlib province in Syria brought hope for reconciliation.
"Russia and Turkey agree that the planned steps and actual implementation of the two countries will provide new impetus to the process of political settlement of the Syrian conflict, and may stimulate the efforts of the Geneva peace talks, thus contributing to the restoration of peace in Syria." Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that the new agreement may eventually end Syria’s long and devastating civil war.
However, the mixed dilemma in Idlib seems to be difficult to be solved by the conclusion of the new agreement.
At present, there are dozens of anti-government armed factions in Idlib province, including the extremist organization "Conquest Front". However, tens of thousands of extremists and anti-government armed men called moderate opposition by western countries are mixed with each other, which has become the crux of the complicated situation in Idlib.
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported that although Russia and Turkey have reached a non-military buffer zone agreement, which leaves room for further diplomatic actions, in the long run, it is difficult for the agreement to accurately solve the above practical problems.
"The mutual compromise between Russia and Turkey is of positive significance, which shows that Russia, Turkey and Iraq can resolve their differences through negotiations, effectively quell conflicts on the ground battlefield and avoid mass deaths of civilians." Gong Zheng also stressed that the establishment of the non-military buffer zone can only partially ease the conflict. "This does not mean that peace will come quickly."
The above-mentioned extremist organization "Conquest Front" will be excluded from the Russian-Turkish ceasefire, and air strikes by all parties around the fight against terrorism are expected to continue.
Moreover, Gong Zheng pointed out that the Kurdish armed forces supported by the United States still control the northeast of Syria, while a small opposition force still occupies the Tanf area in the southeast, and the United States itself has more than 2,000 soldiers deployed in the Syrian battlefield. At the same time, Turkey’s "Olive Branch Military Operation" in Syria continues, taking control of several towns in the north. Israel has long carried out air strikes in southwestern Syria to combat pro-Iranian forces in Syria.
In this complex background, for the Syrian government, which vowed to "recover every inch of territory", the "military plan" still seems hard to give up.
