[US stocks close]
Before the US stock market opened yesterday, the US non-agricultural report was released! The data shows that the number of non-agricultural employees increased by 209,000 in June, which was less than the expected increase of 230,000.
However, the average hourly wage in the United States in June increased by 4.4% year-on-year, higher than the expected 4.2%; The hourly wage increased by 0.4% from the previous month, which was also higher than the expected 0.3%; The unemployment rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month to 3.6%, which was the same as expected.
After the non-agricultural report was released, the market thought that the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of July was as high as 92%, which was roughly the same as before the non-agricultural announcement.
The faster-than-expected growth rate of hourly wages strengthened the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates in July, and US stocks closed down across the board. At the close, the Dow Jones index fell 0.55%; The S&P 500 index fell by 0.29%; The Nasdaq index fell 0.13%.
The three major US stock indexes all recorded declines this week, with the S&P 500 index down 1.16%, Nasdaq down 0.92% and Dow down 1.96%.
Large technology stocks in the United States were mixed, with the semiconductor sector performing relatively strongly, while NVIDIA and TSMC both closed up. Among FAANMGT’s seven technology stocks, only Amazon closed red.
Popular Chinese stocks generally rose, with Nasdaq China Jinlong Index rising by 3.19%, Alibaba rising by 8%, Tencent ADR rising by 4.10%, and other Chinese stocks also floating across the board.
[futures closing]
The US dollar index fell sharply on Friday, boosting commodity prices. Metal futures generally rose, and silver rose by nearly 2%.
In terms of energy and chemical industry, only natural gas futures fell by nearly 2%, and the rest of the varieties were all red.
Agricultural futures are mixed. Cotton and sugar receive red; Soybean, corn and wheat, the three staple food varieties, closed down across the board.
In terms of financial futures, short-term US bonds closed up, while 10-year and long-term US bonds closed down.
[Economic data]
The United States’ non-agricultural production in June was less than expected, but the hourly wage growth rate exceeded expectations, which was difficult to stop the Fed from raising interest rates.
Under the continuous aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the signs of a slowdown in the US job market are gradually emerging.
According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last night, there were 209,000 new non-agricultural employees in June, the smallest increase since December 2020, which was lower than the market expectation of 240,000. At the same time, the number of non-agricultural new jobs in April and May was also revised downwards. The latest revised data shows that in the past six months, the average monthly employment increased by 278,000, far below the monthly average of 399,000 in 2022.
In June, new jobs in non-agricultural sectors mainly came from government, medical and health care, social assistance and construction.
However, it is worth noting that the average hourly wage in the United States in June increased by 4.4% year-on-year, higher than the expected 4.2%; The hourly wage increased by 0.4% from the previous month, which was also higher than the expected 0.3%; The unemployment rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month to 3.6%, which was the same as expected.
What do analysts think?
Analysts generally believe that although the new employment slowed down in June, the unemployment rate is still at an extremely low level, the wage growth rate of workers exceeded expectations, and the Fed’s interest rate hike in July was almost "nailed".
"The labor market in the United States is slowing down, but the possibility of a sharp deterioration seems unlikely, and there are cracks in the job market. However, we believe that the risk of a sharp decline in the employment situation is low. Most leading indicators show that the current pace of employment growth is positive, but it is still far above the sustainable level." Aichi Amemiya, a senior American economist at Nomura, said, "As long as the overall employment remains high, the Fed may think that the risk of insufficient interest rate hikes is greater."
"Enterprises tried to correct the problem of over-recruitment during the epidemic by laying off employees, but by May this year, this trend seemed to be stable. The high-profile layoffs in the technology industry in the first half of this year did not point to broader signs of recession. In the past six months, we have not seen layoffs spread to other sectors of the economy. However, in view of the decrease in available funds, enterprises may continue to make personnel adjustments. " Layla O’Kane, a senior economist at Lightcast, a job market analysis agency, said.
"The slowdown in recruitment in June and the downward revision of employment in the past few months are not enough to reassure the Fed. Although the supply and demand of labor are tending to be balanced, the monthly increase of hourly wages and working hours has aggravated the inflation impulse. In view of the Fed’s concern about the inflation of’ super core services’, it is necessary to further raise interest rates to curb strong inflation. Bloomberg economists Stuart Paul and Eliza Winger analyzed.
[Financial News]
Specializing in head iron! Us short sellers lost $122.1 billion in the first half of the year.
A report released by S3 Partners Research, a financial data company, on July 7th shows that American technology stocks have risen sharply this year, which has brought huge losses to short sellers.
Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of S3 Partners, said that by the end of June, the short position of American stocks had climbed from $864 billion at the end of 2022 to $1.001 trillion. This is largely driven by hedge funds, which are hedging their long stock bets while increasing the leverage of their portfolios.
It is reported that in the first half of this year, short sellers lost a total of $122.1 billion, including nearly $30 billion in Tesla, NVIDIA and Apple.
The day after the establishment of "No Price Reduction Alliance", car companies cut prices, and SAIC Volkswagen ID.3 dropped by 23% at the highest.
Only one day after the establishment of the "No Price Reduction Alliance" of major car companies, some car companies have reduced their prices again.
On July 7, SAIC-Volkswagen officially announced that its ID.3 model was reduced in price, with the highest drop of 37,000, and the starting price dropped from 162,900 yuan to 125,900 yuan, a drop of 23%. SAIC Volkswagen said that as of July 31, the number of this promotion was only 7,000.
The United States plans to purchase an additional 6 million barrels of crude oil to replenish its strategic oil reserves.
The United States announced on Friday that it will purchase an additional 6 million barrels of crude oil to replenish its strategic oil reserves and continue to slowly replenish its emergency reserves. This procurement is planned for October and November.
Due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States historically used 180 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, and other stocks authorized by Congress were released, which led to a 40-year low in the size of US crude oil reserves.
The U.S. Department of Energy said it would buy more oil as a reserve if market conditions allowed.
The large model standardization group was established, and Baidu, Ali and Huawei joined the team.
On July 7th, at the 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2023), the National Artificial Intelligence Standardization General Group under the guidance of the National Standards Committee announced the leader of China’s first large-scale model standardization special group, which was jointly held by Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and 360 Group, Baidu, Huawei, Ali and other enterprises, and issued certificates on the spot and officially started the formulation of national standards for large-scale model testing.
This is also the latest progress after the country started the standardization of large models in May this year, the General Group of Artificial Intelligence Standardization set up a large model special group, started the declaration of the group leader and deputy group leader of the large model special group, and suggested topics for the large model standardization research.
[Company News]
Zuckerberg: Threads has over 70 million registered users.
On Friday (July 7th) local time, Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, said on Threads: "As of this morning, the registered users of Threads website reached 70 million, far exceeding our expectations."
Threads is an independent application launched by Meta based on Instagram and competing with Twitter, which was officially launched recently.
In the early stage, Apple Vision Pro only accepts appointment purchase.
According to a source quoted by the Securities Times, Apple plans to launch its Vision Pro head-mounted display device in the US market early next year, but in the early sales stage, it only accepts pre-arranged purchases.
To this end, Apple does not expect to cooperate with third-party distributors to sell Vision Pro at least until 2025. Due to the limited supply and the high cost of equipment, most stores may only provide one or two demonstration equipment at first.
Apple plans to give priority to sales of Vision Pro in stores in big cities such as new york and Los Angeles, and then promote it to 270 Apple stores in the United States.
Mercedes-Benz joins Tesla North America Super Charging Network.
Mercedes-Benz, a well-known luxury car brand, announced on July 7 that from 2024, Mercedes-Benz owners can use Tesla super charging piles in North America.
Mercedes-Benz will establish its own charging network by the end of this decade, with more than 400 charging centers, including more than 2,500 high-power chargers.
Globally, Mercedes-Benz plans to establish more than 2,000 charging centers in other core markets such as North America and Europe by the end of this decade.
Musk responded to monopolizing the rocket launch market: SpaceX’s mission is to make life multi-planetary.
Recently, there is market news that SpaceX has a monopoly position in the field of rocket launch.
In this regard, SpaceX CEO Musk said on Friday that "the goals of the country and the company are too low. Lack of ambition is their weakness. SpaceX’s mission is to make life multi-planetary. Even a little success in this goal will bring very good performance to Earth orbit. "
[Financial Outlook]
Next week, China-US CPI hits, and the US stock market earnings season is about to kick off.
Next week, the two major economies of China and the United States will release June CPI data. In addition, the second quarter earnings season of U.S. stocks will also kick off, with Pepsi firing the first shot and bank stocks following suit.