Former British Prime Minister Johnson’s resignation as a member of parliament triggered a chain reaction …

In the shadow of the "party door" scandal, former British Prime Minister Johnson announced his resignation as a member of the lower house of parliament on the 9 th. Shortly thereafter, two other Conservative MPs decided to follow in Johnson’s footsteps. This means that the Conservative Party now faces a by-election for three seats in Parliament. While the opposition is eyeing up, this farce has become the latest problem facing Prime Minister Sunak.

Resign in succession

Johnson said in his resignation statement that the decision was related to the investigation surrounding the "Party Gate" scandal. The "gathering door" refers to the scandal that the British Prime Minister’s Office and other government offices held meetings many times in violation of epidemic prevention regulations during the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 and 2021, which was one of the reasons why Johnson was forced to resign as prime minister last July.

After the scandal was exposed, Johnson once denied the violation, saying that he mistakenly thought it was a work activity. Since last year, the Privileged Committee of the Lower House of Parliament began to investigate whether Johnson had lied to the parliament about the "party door", and announced in March this year that he had received the materials delivered by Johnson. In these materials, Johnson admitted misleading the parliament, but denied deliberately doing it.

According to the British media, the Privilege Committee has the right to suggest that Johnson suspend his duties as a member of parliament, and suspending his duties for more than 10 days may trigger a by-election in his constituency.

However, without waiting for the "official announcement" of the Privilege Committee, Johnson announced his resignation first. He said that the Privilege Committee failed to prove that it misled Parliament intentionally, but was determined to take action to expel him from Parliament. Some commentators said that this statement is reminiscent of former US President Trump on the other side of the Atlantic.

Shortly thereafter, Nadine dorris, former Minister of Culture, and Nigel Adams, former Minister of State for Asia-Pacific Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, decided to follow in Johnson’s footsteps. This means that the Conservative Party now faces a by-election for three seats in Parliament, which is expected to be held before the summer vacation.

It is reported that there is another thing that makes Johnson dissatisfied, that is, who can be commended for making important contributions during his tenure as prime minister. It is reported that Johnson tried to take this opportunity to cram three of his parliamentary allies, including dorris and Adams, into the upper house of parliament, and was assured by Sunak. However, the facts show that Johnson failed to get what he wanted, and Sunak also denied making relevant commitments, and said that the list was reviewed by an independent Committee of the upper house of parliament.

"Gong Dou" resurfaced?

Since taking office as Prime Minister in October last year, Sunak seems to have temporarily put an end to the continuous turmoil in British politics, but the latest scene evokes people’s memories of the "palace fight" drama in British politics.

After all, Sunak was once one of Johnson’s "right-hand men", and in July last year, Sunak’s resignation was regarded as one of the "fuses" for Johnson to step down. Therefore, some commentators said that these three by-elections are like the mines laid by Johnson in Sunak’s government, and Johnson may not sympathize with Sunak now.

However, there are indications that this does not seem to be a rebellion initiated by Johnson. First, because Johnson reacted excitedly after learning the preliminary findings of the Privilege Committee, it was not like acting. Second, there are no more members to follow Johnson’s resignation, and the chaos within the Conservative Party is temporarily controllable.

"I don’t think this is part of an elaborate plot to shake and overthrow Sunak," said Guto Harri, a former spokesman for Johnson.

At the same time, Grant Shapps, a senior cabinet minister, denied that the Privileges Committee was biased and that Johnson was expelled by the "establishment". He said that in the seven-member privilege Committee, the Conservative Party is in the majority.

At present, the election of three by-elections and Johnson’s political fate are more concerned by public opinion. In multiple contexts, these three by-elections are regarded as the first major test that Sunak has faced since he took office.

First of all, the Conservative Party has performed poorly in Tiverton and other constituencies in recent years, losing several seats. Secondly, the current economic situation in Britain still needs to be improved, and the support rate of the Conservative Party is unstable, even leading by the Labour Party by 15 percentage points in the polls. In addition, Britain may usher in a general election next autumn, and Sunak will certainly not want to see chaos within the party, or even be overshadowed by the opposition party.

However, Labour has seen an opportunity. Pat McFadden, a Labour MP, said that these three by-elections will prove that the Labour Party is not in a desperate situation. "We will fight for victory."

At present, Labour candidate Danny Bierce has targeted Johnson’s previous seat in Axbridge constituency. According to the British media, this is an easy goal for the Labour Party, given that the local advantages of the Conservative Party are not obvious.

In contrast, Adams and dorris have a stronger support base in Selby constituency and Middle Bedfordshire constituency, and the opposition party will face certain challenges. In addition, the Liberal Democrats may also compete for seats in the Central Bedfordshire constituency.

Can you make a comeback?

As for Johnson’s political fate, whether he will easily give up his ups and downs as a member of parliament for more than 20 years has aroused concern.

On the one hand, Johnson’s position in Westminster has declined. An example is that in March this year, Johnson’s attempt to undermine the Northern Ireland agreement signed by Sunak failed to cause much uproar in Parliament.

"He (Johnson) has retired from the current political arena." Shapus said.

Senator Tim Loughton agreed that it was time for Johnson to "keep quiet and let the adults in the government" continue their work.

On the other hand, Johnson still has a certain influence in the party. After all, he led Britain to "Brexit" and led the Conservative Party to win a big victory in the 2019 general election.

Congressman Mark Jenkinson felt "very sad" that the "political giant" was forced to leave the lower house of parliament, and accused it of "political persecution".

However, according to local media reports, there are only a few Conservative MPs who lament that Johnson’s political career will end. Jacob August Riis Mogg, a former cabinet minister, thinks that Johnson is still expected to make a comeback. Reese Mogg is one of the members of the Johnson administration who was commended.

Johnson himself hinted at his resignation that this was only a "temporary" decision, leaving a lot of suspense. Some critics say that if Johnson is re-elected as a member of the House of Commons in the next election, he will follow in the footsteps of his idol Winston Churchill, who often changes seats in parliament.

(Edit email: ylq@jfdaily.com)