Beauty cosmetics may be the first industry to "roll up".

In the general environment, the growth rate of cosmetics retail market has slowed down, and various new regulations of the industry have gradually landed, and the business pressure of enterprises has suddenly increased; On the channel side, online traffic dividends are disappearing, and offline channels are still lingering in winter; On the brand side, new domestic products began to get cold, and international beauty brands also felt the chill.

According to incomplete statistics, in 2021, more than ten international beauty brands will either withdraw their cabinets, clear their warehouses or even stop operating in China. In the counted cases, the groups of imported brands are mainly international beauty giants, such as Yueshi Fengyin, owned by Korean Amore Pacific Construction Group, Benefit Bellingfield, a makeup brand owned by LVMH Group, and Jurlique, an Australian skin care brand, etc., involving skin care, makeup and care.

If there is a brand withdrawal, there will be a brand rise. When overseas beauty care brands want to test the water market in China, how can these brands make a breakthrough from 0 to 1? What channels should policymakers consider? How do they diagnose the shortcomings of brand development and make rapid adjustments?

In view of these problems, today’s case focuses on three beauty care brands, Fulifang Silk, Whoo Hou and Fulu Deya, which have maintained rapid growth in recent five years from the perspective of e-commerce operation, in an effort to put forward more prospects and thoughts for the further development of overseas beauty care brands in China market.

Author | Yang Li Yan Min

Source | cheung kong graduate school of business Case Center

In recent years, the scale of online transactions in China’s beauty industry has risen rapidly, and the growth rate far exceeds that of offline channels.E-commerce platforms represented by Tmall, JD.COM and Xiaohongshu have become the main distribution channels of overseas beauty care brands in China market.

This report focuses on three beauty care brands from the perspective of e-commerce operation: Fu Li Fang Si, Whoo Hou, Fu Lv De Ya.

All three brands are overseas brands that have entered China in recent years. They chose Tmall platform as one of the main channels for them to expand the China market, and commissioned local e-commerce to operate the company Liren Lizhuang service brand. All three brands have achieved sustained and rapid growth for more than five years.

Among them, Fulifang Silk comes from Japan and mainly sells amino acid formula cleansing products. In 2015, it entered Tmall, with annual sales of nearly 1 billion in 2021. The brand’s market share in Tmall cleansing products has exceeded 10%.

After Whoo, it mainly focused on facial care suits. In 2014, it entered Tmall, and in 2021, the store sales reached 2.56 billion. It is the largest and fastest growing Korean beauty brand in Amoy.

Fulv Deya is the first brand of scalp care in France. In 2015, the sales of Tmall flagship store was 3 million, and then it grew at a rate of over 100% for six consecutive years. In 2021, the sales exceeded 200 million.

Although the above three overseas beauty care brands have proven best-selling products in their local markets, they also have good brand power. However, in the face of the unfamiliar and opportunity-filled China market, how did these overseas beauty care brands achieve a breakthrough from 0 to 1?

In the ever-changing e-commerce market, how can they diagnose the shortcomings of brand development from massive data and make rapid adjustments?

Facing the future, can the above three brands achieve long-term sustainable growth through refined operation in the e-commerce market?

"Small pieces break big categories" is what many consumer brands want to do most:

Select a new track in the market, get stronger and stronger in this new track, and then surpass the development speed of big categories and become the leader of the whole big track.

Coca-Cola is like this to the soft drink market.

Fu Li Fang si asAmino acid formula cleansing productThe representative brand has basically realized the process of breaking the "big category" of cleansing products from the "small category" of gentle cleansing.

This achievement is due to two factors:First, it conforms to and cultivates the market background trend of mild skin care and amino acid skin care.

According to the statistics of Hidden Horse, in the TOP100 SKU of facial cleansing in double 11 from 2018 to 2020, the proportion of products with amino acid facial cleansing as the main selling point has increased from less than 50% in double 11 in 2018 to nearly 70% in double 11 in 2020.

The second is the operation team.(including brands and service providers)I have a deep insight into the operational logic of beauty care e-commerce and made fruitful operational actions.

Fulifang silk brand byKanebo JapanThe group was launched in 2001 and entered the China market with the concept of "cosmeceuticals" in 2005. Because there is no drug store format in China, Fu Lifangsi initially chose Watsons and other channels to expand the offline market.

In 2014, the sales of Fulifang Silk Network was about 33 million. At the same time, Liren Lizhuang, an e-commerce operation service company, judged that Fulifang silk has a huge room for improvement because:

One,Tmall digital intelligence tools show that the number of times consumers search for "amino acid cleansing" is on the rise, behind which is the rise of "component party"-this group of users do not blindly believe in "big names", but pay more attention to the real efficacy of products;

Second, since 2014, the rise of Tmall cosmetics indicates that the makeup market in China will usher in explosive growth, and the increase in the use of cosmetics will immediately bring more moderate demand for facial cleansing.

As a result, Fulifang Silk Tmall flagship store chose a new one in 2015.E-commerce operation service provider. From brand positioning to store management, refined and digital e-commerce operation has gradually brought Fulifang silk from niche brands to category number one.

The first is to reposition the brand.

Based on the insight into the trend of "amino acid cleansing", the operation team no longer uses the concept of "cosmeceutical" to define Fulifang silk, but equates it with the concepts of product selling points such as "amino acid cleansing" and "sensitive muscle friendliness".

Zhihu is a KOL for skin care.(opinion leader)One of the active platforms focuses on a large number of skin care products "component party" and "efficacy party" groups. The early core customers of Fridays came from the recommendation of KOL.

From a large number of questions and answers from Zhihu to WeChat WeChat official account, Xiaohongshu, Tik Tok, Aauto Quicker, etc., Fulifang Silk has gradually been endowed with the brand image of "the originator of amino acid cleansing".

In Tmall Station, the concept of "amino acid cleansing" has been repeatedly emphasized in every graphic propaganda and advertising of Fulifang Silk.

In the specific marketing activities, it is the daily work of the operation team to finely deliver according to the crowd portraits provided by the e-commerce platform and make good use of every marketing expense.

The second is to adjust the sales strategy.

In 2016, as a classic formula product of Fulifang Silk "Amino Acid Cleansing", "Fulifang Silk Cleansing Cream" quickly rose to the top three in Tmall Cleansing category, and then firmly occupied the top position.

Fridays used to sell 580 yuan/sets of water emulsion suits, and the higher unit price of the suits meant stronger competitors.

The operator quickly adjusted the store strategy, and mainly promoted 150 yuan/Branch’s 100g "Fulifang Silk Cleansing Cream", which on the one hand strengthened the brand features and product selling points of "Amino Acid Cleansing", on the other hand effectively lowered the consumption threshold, and achieved the explosion of "double 11 Cleansing Category NO.1 for five consecutive years".

Explosives can get the qualification to participate in Tmall’s large-scale marketing activities, which is equivalent to getting a lot of free traffic, making a benign interaction between stores and platforms.

After that, the acting operation team, after consultation with the brand, further introduced the 60g small-sized "Fulifang Silk Cleansing Cream" from 99 yuan/Branch.

Due to the high cost of small-sized products, the brand initially hesitated. However, in June 18, 2021, through the large-scale preferential activities of buy one get one free, combined with the cooperation of the head anchor, the 60-gram small-sized facial cleanser sold more than 1 million pieces, effectively attracting more new users to contact Fulifang silk.

Because of the refined operation, the flagship store of Fulifang Silk Tmall started with sales of more than 60 million yuan in 2016, and almost doubled year after year, with sales reaching 854 million by 2020.

In 2021, the sales of Fulifang Silk Tmall flagship store reached 969 million, with an increase rate of 13.5%.It is higher than the overall growth level of the industry of beauty and skin care products by 11%.

It is worth noting that in the case that the traffic cost of the e-commerce industry is generally rising, Fu Lifang has been in the past three years.In-station marketing cost(Note: In-station marketing cost = In-station marketing expenses /GMV)However, it remained stable and there was no upward trend.

Even if it is done in 2021.Chaotou(Note: Super head is the super head anchor, such as Li Jiaqi, etc.)The lowest discount rate of the over-head is only 90% of the conventional minimum discount rate, which has little impact on the unit price of the product.

In the last two years, traditional big-name brands and cutting-edge brands have launched similar products to compete for the amino acid cleansing market, and Fulifang silk is facing more intense brand competition.

The market share of Frestex in cleansing products has exceeded 10%, reaching the beauty market.A single brand is at a higher level of a single category.Competitors use price war methods such as the same price and quantity, the same quantity and low price, and constantly introduce a variety of products.

The product research and development team of Fulifang Silk is far away from Japan. Influenced by the relatively conservative Japanese business culture, it believes in the mature and classic amino acid cleansing formula, and the motivation to upgrade the formula is weak.

Similar to other international brands, the Japanese R&D team may not respond quickly to the needs of the China market, although Fridays China Company attaches great importance to the market insight gained by the generation operation team from data operation.

Figure 1: Diagnosis of the brand mental index (NEO) of Tmall brand of Fulifang Silk.

E-commerce digital intelligence tools can help us to further pay attention to and discuss the brand innovation of Fulifang Silk.

On the basis of systematically combing the classic business theories and business models of consulting companies, Tmall platform puts forward brand crowd mental index (NEO) from three dimensions of innovation, Engagement and sOlidiy, and combines it with brand crowd asset index (FAST) to form Tmall brand power model.

Among them, the innovation index includes two indicators: pioneer concentration and brand selling point relevance; the communication index includes three indicators: brand search popularity, close fans/active members concentration and brand recommendation concentration; and the value index includes three indicators: premium rate, positive price rate and repurchase rate.

As shown in fig. 1, according to this diagnostic tool, during the observation period,(June to December 2021)Inside and outside, the brand communication index of Fridays is better than that of the three strategic groups.Similar brands in the industry(Note: "Similar brand in the industry" is defined by the operation team through the long-term tracking of Tmall’s sales of digital intelligence tools. The dimensions to be considered include brand positioning, product positioning, price segment, portrait of users, inflow and outflow of brand people, etc.)And the "brand selling point relevance" in the innovation index still has room for further improvement.

NEO diagnostic tools can help brands to abandon subjective assumptions and urge them to think about the next marketing optimization measures.

As the leader of amino acid cleansing logic, how can Fulifang silk continue its brand influence on the concept of amino acid skin care and gentle cleansing? In the face of many competitors, can the classic formula alone continue to lead the gentle cleansing market?

Whoo is a high-end beauty brand launched by South Korea’s LG Life and Health Group in 2003. The post-Whoo brand is called "The History Of Whoo post-Whoo", which means the secret of the queen. The product is famous for its "unique skin care formula of the court". The skin care ingredients are extracted from precious medicinal materials such as ginseng and velvet antler, and the product packaging design also reflects the noble and elegant oriental style.

In South Korea, after Whoo, Li Yingai, a star, was hired as the brand spokesperson, which was deeply loved by high-spending people, and it was also a gift brand for the foreign affairs visit of the President of South Korea.

After entering the China market in 2006, Whoo mainly relied on the sales channels of shopping malls.

In 2014, Whoo settled in Tmall, and in 2016, it achieved annual sales of 155 million.

Due to the caution of Korean brands in China market and the invisible "Korean Restriction Order" since 2016, Whoo has never launched a large-scale advertisement in China market.

As a high-end beauty brand, Whoo will be associated with the mystery of Estee Lauder, Lancome and Hailan.（La Mer）It can be imagined that it is difficult for European and American brands to win the high-end beauty market.

How to achieve rapid growth after Whoo? In 2016, Liren Lizhuang took over the operation of the Whoo acquired cat flagship store and established the main operation idea: due to the shortcomings of weak public domain communication after Whoo, the auxiliary brands will achieve geometric growth in the next few years.First of all, we must have a deep consumer base and communicate directly with users through various means.

In the specific operation, the generation operation team divides consumers into two groups: "new customers" and "old customers".

How to develop "new customers"? The generation operation team uses the crowd labeling tool provided by the e-commerce platform to advertise and push the product selling point to the strategic crowd.

With the upgrade of platform marketing tools, operators can define multiple tags to find the target population.

For example, in the search for "facial care package" traffic, accurately identify people with high consumption power.

Considering the increasing cost of online marketing, the operation team attaches great importance to the maintenance of "old customers" and gives them more discounts and brand benefits to realize the effective activation of "old customers".

In recent years, withPrivate domain operation(Note: In the era of mobile internet, merchants can reach consumers directly through various communication tools, forming "private domain traffic", and this kind of interaction with consumers is "private domain operation")Becoming mainstream, the platform provides more tools to interact with consumers.

Private domain operation channels after Whoo include: Taobao group, store subscription, store live broadcast, shopping and so on. In double 11 in 2021, after Whoo, all private domain channels were fully linked and achieved good results:

In the live broadcast room of the store, the limited-time rights and interests (note: limited-time rights and interests generally refer to preferential prices or gifts that can only be enjoyed in the live broadcast room within a specific time range), the whole-hour formal attire, the delivery of iPhone13, and the invitation of stars and presidents to the live broadcast room led to a turnover of more than 200 million yuan, which attracted more than 128,000 fans’ attention and more than 65,000 new members.

The turnover of Taobao Group was 148 million, with more than 230,000 new people in the group, and more than 430,000 people entered the store.

From 2020, the generation operation team began to carry out more refined operations on private domain members. As of December 22, 2021, the total number of members reached 7.14 million, 14 times of the total number of members at the end of 2019.

Tianqidan water emulsion set is the main product after Whoo.In double 11 in 2021, more than 880,000 sets were sold, with sales exceeding 1.2 billion, accounting for nearly 90% of the total sales of the store in double 11, ranking first in the category of beauty, skin care and facial care sets for three consecutive years.

Based on e-commerce big data, operators predicted this trend as early as 2016. At that time, Tmall Digital Intelligence Tool showed that some consumers changed from searching for a certain beauty product to searching for skin care products.

Behind this behavior, two needs may be reflected:

First, consumers are no longer satisfied with simple skin care, but are eager to get more exquisite and systematic skin care methods;

Second, consumers hope to give more decent gifts to friends and elders through suits.

Based on the above judgment, the operator focuses on promoting Tianqidan water emulsion set to meet these needs.

Through a series of fine digital operations, the marketing cost of Whoo acquired cat flagship store in 2020 was the same as that in 2019, and even decreased by 10% in 2021, while the discount rate of goods remained unchanged.

At the same time, the flagship store of Whoo acquired cats maintained rapid growth year after year from 2016 to 2021, with sales of 870 million in 2019, explosive growth to 2.2 billion in 2020 and 2.56 billion yuan in 2021.

Figure 2: Diagnosis of Tmall Brand Mental Index (NEO) of 2：Whoo brand.

As shown in Figure 2, according to the Tmall brand mental index,（NEO）Analysis shows that the "premium rate" in the post-Whoo value index is at a high level among similar brands in the industry.

At the same time, during the observation period(June to December 2021)The communication index after Whoo shows an upward trend in many categories. This diagnosis result may be due to the intensive operation of the private sector population after Whoo during the observation period, which pushed up the communication index.

From the perspective of communication and promotion costs, the post-Whoo platform is greatly promoted.(Mainly 618, double 11)The communication cost during the period is lower than that of similar brands in the industry, so the communication index is low; During the promotion period in double 11, the marketing expenses after Whoo increased, which pushed the communication index to be equal to similar brands in the industry.

According to the NEO diagnostic tool, the brand communication index after Whoo has great potential for improvement. How can brands continue to grow under the circumstance of conservative advertising?

While paying attention to private domain operation, can we balance the high-priced image of the brand?(value index)Communicate with users(communication index)The relationship?

More importantly, should the long-term sustainable development of the post-Whoo brand in China continue to focus on the private domain, or should it need more public-private domain linkage and online-offline complementarity?

Fulv Deya brand was founded in 1957, and its star scalp care product "Three-phase Hair Nourishing Essence" ranked first in the sales of anti-shedding series in French pharmacies for 18 consecutive years.

Since entering the China market in 2015, Fu Lu Deya has regarded the e-commerce market as an important sales channel, which is due to several considerations:

1. Avene, a sensitive muscle brand owned by its parent company, Pierre Faber Group, has been successful in the e-commerce market in China;

Second, as a high-priced functional product, Fulu Deya is an efficient choice to reach the high-consumption anti-drop crowd by relying on the e-commerce platform and its big data tools.

Since 2015, Lulu Deya has settled in Tmall. In that year, the sales of flagship stores reached 3 million, and then it grew at a rate of over 100% for six consecutive years.

From 3 million in 2015 to 207 million in 2021, the flagship store of Fulu Deya Tmall entered the "100 million club" and achieved explosive growth. The market ranks from 50 to 8 in 2021, and ranks first in the categories of hair care essential oil bottles and scalp care.

It is particularly noteworthy that in the past three years, the ratio of in-station marketing expenses of Fulu Deya has shown a good trend of decreasing year by year, while the discount promotion of products has not increased. How does Fulv Deya brand stand out in the mixed anti-drop market?

The first is to define the product positioning.

In the market of hair care products in China, low-priced anti-shedding products emerge one after another, and their efficacy mostly stops at the "placebo effect", while Fulu Deya is different from these products.

First, Fu Lu Deya is positioned as "high-end anti-shedding and hair care", and the unit price of the goods is more than 235 yuan;

Second, Fu Lu Deya has a efficacy report issued by a professional laboratory, and dares to "shine a sword" in terms of efficacy.

On behalf of the operator Liren Lizhuang, it is suggested that the brand should cooperate with a third-party laboratory to make an investigation report, and extract the selling point of "3 months +7490 hairs" to directly hit the pain point of consumer demand.

As the main product to undertake this selling point, Fu Lu Deya’s "Three-phase Hair-nourishing Essence" accounted for 30% of the store sales growth, which realized the outbreak of single products that was essential for e-commerce.

The second is refined crowd operation.

Based on the confidence in the efficacy of the product, Fulu Deya chose Zhihu as the professional word of mouth, and Xiaohongshu as the vertical word of mouth to create a professional brand image through hospital channels. In the brand live broadcast room, many well-known bloggers and dermatologists from Huashan Hospital were invited to help out and establish a professional anti-detachment image.

In Taobao station, accurately screen people who have high consumption power and carry out multi-level and multi-angle marketing promotion.

Considering that there are 54 million people in Tmall’s anti-take-off crowd, at present, Fulu Deya has reached nearly 10 million people. It can be predicted that Fulu Deya brand will continue to be in a stage of rapid growth.

Figure 3: Diagnosis of Tmall brand mental index (NEO) of Fulu Deya brand.

According to Tmall brand mental index（NEO）Analysis, during the observation period(June-December 2021)Fu Lu Deya has a high innovation index and a high communication index, but the value index has room for improvement among similar brands in a series of industries.

Part of the reason is that, due to the different statistical caliber, there are differences in the statistics of product samples during the data observation period, which leads to the difference between the value index and brand awareness.

At the same time, the brand is worth thinking about how to continuously improve the traffic conversion rate while reducing the trial installation, so as to increase the overall premium of brand value and maintain the high-end image of the brand.

Fulifang silk broke the "big category" of cleansing products with gentle cleansing "small category" and became the first in the market share of cleansing products; After Whoo, the marketing expenses are much lower than those of similar brands in the industry, and the high-end beauty market is broken with strong private domain operation; Fulv Deya has achieved a high price break in the mixed anti-wash and hair care market, and it is in a stage of rapid growth.

The refined e-commerce operation of the above three overseas beauty care brands has brought several inspirations to the overall development of other overseas beauty care brands in China market.

First, rationally lay out offline channels and online channels.

Today, counters in high-end shopping malls are still a form of highlighting the high-end image of brands, and beauty collection stores provide lower-cost options for offline contact with users, which are not essentially different from those of a few years ago. However, the e-commerce channel represented by Tmall has undergone drastic changes in the past decade.

First of all, the e-commerce channel not only has a distribution function, but also can reshape the brand image in the form of planting grass with content.

Secondly, ten years ago, Tmall Mall may still be full of low-priced goods, but after several high-end beauty care brands settled in the form of official flagship stores in 2014-2016, a large number of users have become accustomed to Tmall buying high-end beauty care products.

For example, a single 99 yuan Fulifang silk small-size facial cleanser is clearly separated from the 20-30 yuan facial cleanser price band dominated by traditional daily chemical brands;

The price of Whoo Hou Tian Qi Dan water emulsion set above 1000 yuan is even higher than that of high-end brands such as Estee Lauder;

The price of a single piece is more than 500 yuan’s fragrant green Deya small-sized three-phase essence, and the price is comparable to that of French luxury brand Cashi.

For mid-to high-end consumer goods brands, which channels are more in line with brand value positioning now and in the future? Which channels can achieve a high input-output ratio of brand marketing expenses? What role do different channels play in the precipitation of brand influence? These are undoubtedly important issues that brands need to explore through big data insight.

Second, the key to seize the opportunity of China’s e-commerce market is the refined operation driven by data.

The China market is complex and changeable, and it is often difficult for overseas brands to cope with it. According to the research of iResearch, compared with local brands, overseas brands are more inclined to hire local e-commerce operators in China, and the cooperation is stable.

This cooperation allows overseas brands to focus on product research and development, while the agent operators can quickly respond to market changes, improve sales performance and promote the break-up and sustainable development of overseas brands in the China market because they are familiar with the rules and operational logic of e-commerce platforms.

The core competitiveness of agency companies lies in efficient marketing and sales capabilities, which is also the key to effectively control the traffic cost of e-commerce platforms.

As the cost of obtaining customers for e-commerce platforms increases year by year, the voice of e-commerce "the bottom of the flow dividend" is endless. However, the facts show that the marketing cost in the station has not increased with the rapid growth of sales of Fulifang Silk, Whoo Hou and Fulu Deya, which has a lot to do with the professional digital and refined operation of the operation team.

As far as more than 60 brands cooperated by Beauty and Beauty Cosmetics are concerned, methods such as creating explosive products, attracting new users with small-sized products, and using platform tools to realize refined crowd operation are generally adopted in the operation process of many brands. Behind these operational strategies are the day-to-day mining of network big data by front-line employees to middle and senior managers and the continuous optimization of brand strategy.

Third, the rapid growth of sustainable development can only be achieved by continuous innovation around the brand core value positioning.

Only by strengthening the communication between the brand and new and old users can we build a consumer mind that can support the brand. Optimizing the traffic conversion rate and effectively raising the premium is an indispensable means to maintain the brand value image.

Tmall brand mental index（NEO）And the corresponding brand power diagnosis model provide an effective e-commerce data diagnosis method for brands.

Innovation index is the first of the three dimensions. However, due to factors such as the choice of similar brands in the industry and the difference in statistical caliber of data, how to combine user behavior and store strategy to obtain innovative insights from data diagnosis is the direction that brands need to constantly think and optimize.

Fu Lu Deya’s NEO innovation index is high, which may be a support point for its high-speed growth stage. For Fridays, the NEO index suggests that the brand innovation index is low.

Combined with the characteristics of Japanese product research and development, brand control in China, and cooperation with the operation team, this data insight reflects the shortcomings that have been neglected in brand development, and provides a decision-making basis for the operation team to adjust its strategy in time and strengthen innovation to cope with market changes.

Ramsdale believes that it was Arsenal’s own mistakes that made Manchester City win the championship ahead of time. "We had a lot of games, all because of the mistakes of individual players, which led to the loss of points. In 3-4 games, we should have won, but in the end we didn’t get enough points. Although I failed to win the championship, I am still proud of our team. For Arsenal, this is also a proud season. "
Although it failed to win the championship, in Ramsdale’s view, Arsenal should have won the championship and have the ability to win it. "The hope of winning the championship has been kept until the penultimate round of the season. We feel wrong about not winning the championship, but we are still proud of our team. We should have won the championship, and we have the ability to win the championship. Unfortunately, we made several mistakes ourselves. "
When talking about being blocked by Nottingham Forest, Ramsdale said, "The opponent is fighting with his life, and we also know that we must pay 100%, but we just can’t tear open the opponent’s defense line, but let the opponent succeed in the counterattack, which means that our season is over ahead of schedule."

2023 Turpan Jiaohe Marathon starts

Turpan Media Center News (Text/Photo Reporter Gapar Liu Jian) On the morning of April 22nd, the "2023 Turpan Jiaohe Marathon" started in Jiaohe Old Town, and more than 2,300 marathon professionals and amateurs from all over the world participated.

On April 22nd, 2023 Turpan Jiaohe Marathon started. Turpan Rong Media Center reporter Liu Jianshe

The competition was hosted by Turpan Municipal People’s Government and jointly undertaken by the Municipal Bureau of Culture, Sports and Tourism, the Municipal Cultural Relics Bureau, the Municipal Sports Federation and the Autonomous Region Self-driving Sports Association. There are three events in the competition: full marathon (42.195km) men’s group and women’s group, half marathon (21.0975) men’s group and women’s group, and mini marathon (5km, male or female).

On April 22, the contestants ran on the ring road of Jiaohe Old Town. Turpan Rong Media Center reporter Liu Jianshe

On the same day, the world cultural heritage Jiaohe Old Town was full of colorful flags, cheerful music and passionate dance. With the start of the gun, the players rushed to the track, and the audience was boiling with shouts and cheers. Xia Qingwen, a contestant from Changsha City, Hunan Province, said: "The marathon is a test of body and will. I am very happy to come to Turpan to participate in the competition this time. I will come again when I have the opportunity."

On April 22 nd, the winner of the men’s team in the full marathon finally sprinted. Turpan Rong Media Center reporter Liu Jianshe

On April 22 nd, I won a group photo of the men’s team champion and runner-up in the whole marathon. Turpan Rong Media Center reporter Liu Jianshe

It is understood that Turpan held the first "Turpan Jiaohe Marathon" in 2016. After years of brand building and careful preparation, the "Turpan Jiaohe Marathon" has been successfully held for three times, and the international influence of the event is getting higher and higher. It has become one of Turpan’s boutique sports events. The total prize money of this marathon is 211,600 yuan, which is the highest prize money in previous competitions.

On April 22 nd, the women’s team champion who won the full marathon finally sprinted. Turpan Rong Media Center reporter Liu Jianshe

On April 22 nd, I won a group photo of the women’s team champion and runner-up in the full marathon. Turpan Rong Media Center reporter Liu Jianshe

In recent years, Turpan has vigorously promoted the integrated development of sports and culture, tourism, education, health and other industries, concentrated on the development of "sports+tourism", made a big article on the integrated development of cultural tourism and sports, and made it bigger and stronger, such as sports event tours, sports recreation tours and other tourism cultural brands and new formats. Since the beginning of this year, Turpan has successfully held a number of sports events, which not only enriched the format of scenic spots, but also enhanced the tourist attraction and brand influence of scenic spots, and further made Turpan’s tourism brand image known as the "Pearl of the Silk Road in the Holy City of Grapes".

Xiao Jianwu, Deputy Secretary of Turpan Municipal Committee, Party Secretary and Vice Chairman of CPPCC, and Secretary of Political and Legal Committee of Municipal Committee delivered a speech and announced the start of "2023 Turpan Jiaohe Marathon".

Video: Liu Yujie Zhu Fuping Wang Lingyue

Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) is defined as a set of devices and applications that allow large enterprises to create an end-to-end connection environment from the core to the edge. It also includes traditional physical infrastructure, such as containers and logistics trucks, to collect data, react to events and make more informed decisions with the help of smart devices.

The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) is an extension of the Internet of Things (IoT) and has many applications in the consumer field. IoT use cases include, for example, smart home devices such as Amazon Echo, which use Alexa voice recognition function to remotely turn off the lights.

In industrial operation, this technology has been widely used in business in the environment with complex infrastructure and large equipment. In contrast, the industrial Internet of Things can remotely manage the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system of the whole factory. This is just an industrial Internet of Things use case that simplifies and improves enterprise operation and management.

How does the Industrial Internet of Things work?

Industrial Internet of Things is a subclass of Internet of Things, and enterprises are redefining how to connect, monitor, analyze and take action on industrial data to reduce costs and promote growth.

The idea behind the industrial Internet of Things is to use the data generated by "dumb devices" in industrial facilities for many years. Intelligent machines on the assembly line can not only capture and analyze data faster, but also exchange important information faster, which helps to make business decisions faster and more accurately.

The integration of information technology (IT) and operation technology (OT) promotes the development of industrial Internet of Things. It is a network matrix connecting devices, which collects and analyzes data through sensor technology and integrates it directly into the platform as a service. Industrial Internet of Things will herald a new era of industrial use cases, and there are many opportunities for economic expansion.

Industrial Internet of Things collects a large number of field data from factory workshops, transmits them through connecting nodes, analyzes them on the server, and transforms the information into operational opinions on the cloud platform. This encourages enterprises to make better decisions for their specific markets and target audiences. In other words, the industrial Internet of Things is a system that connects edge devices such as actuators, sensors, controllers, connection switches, gateways and industrial personal computers (IPC) to the cloud.

What is the connection between Industry 4.0 and Industrial Internet of Things?

Industry 4.0 is the product of the fourth industrial revolution. The definition of the fourth industrial revolution is the integration of traditional automated manufacturing and industrial processes driven by intelligent technology and autonomous communication equipment.

The word "Industry 4.0", abbreviated as I4.0 or I4, appeared in 2011, which is an initiative of the German government to vigorously advocate the digitalization of industrial processes in the past 20 years.

As mentioned by the Boston Consulting Group, the industrial Internet of Things is the main pillar of Industry 4.0, in addition to additive manufacturing or 3D printing, augmented reality (AR), autonomous robots, big data analysis, cloud computing, network security, horizontal and vertical system integration and simulation. This is because the autonomous communication between machines and the decentralized digital environment can automatically solve the problems that needed manual intervention before.

Industry 4.0 covers the industrial Internet of Things, digitalization and sustainable development of enterprises in a wider scope. Industrial Internet of Things is the driving force behind Industry 4.0, without which there would be no Industry 4.0. In other words, the industrial Internet of Things is limited to data detection, data transmission, data calculation, data processing and intelligent applications in specific fields.

Architecture of Industrial Internet of Things

The typical industrial Internet of Things architecture describes the arrangement of digital systems, so that they can jointly provide the network and data connection between sensors, Internet of Things devices, data storage and other layers. Therefore, the industrial Internet of Things architecture must have the following points:

1. Internet of Things devices at the edge of the network

These are groupings of network objects located at the edge of the Internet of Things ecosystem. These locations are as close as possible to the location of the data source. These are usually wireless actuators and sensors in industrial environments. A processing unit or small computing device and a set of observation endpoints. Edge IOT devices may include traditional devices, cameras, speakers, sensors and other instruments and monitors in brown land environment.

What happens at the most remote edge of the network? Sensors get data from the surrounding environment and the items they monitor, and then convert the information into indicators and figures that can be analyzed by the Internet of Things platform, and turn them into operational insights. Actuators control the processes that occur in the observed environment. They change the physical environment in which data is generated.

2. Edge data management and initial processing

Without high-quality and massive data, complex analysis and artificial intelligence cannot give full play to their potential. Even at the sensor level, data processing can be performed.

In this respect, edge computing provides the fastest answer, because the data is preprocessed at the edge of the network and in the sensor itself. Here, numerical and aggregated data can be analyzed. Once the relevant insights are collected, you can move on to the next stage instead of sending all the collected information. This extra processing reduces the amount of data sent to the data center or cloud.

3. Cloud for advanced processing

The preprocessing ability of edge devices is limited. Although it has been as close to the edge as possible to limit the consumption of local computing power, users will need to use the cloud for deeper and thorough processing.

At this time, we must choose whether to give priority to the agility and immediacy of edge devices or to the advanced insights of cloud computing. Cloud-based solutions can perform a lot of processing. Here, you can aggregate data from different sources and provide insights that are not available at the edge.

In the context of industrial Internet of Things architecture, the cloud will have:

concentratorIn addition to telemetry and equipment control, it also provides a safe link with the field system. If necessary, hubs can provide remote connections to local systems across multiple locations. It maintains all communication elements, such as connection management, secure communication channels, and device authentication and authorization.

save: Used to store information before and after processing.

analyse: It is helpful for data processing and analysis.

User interface:It provides the visualization of transmitting the analysis results to the end users, usually through the Web browser interface, but also through e-mail, SMS and telephone reminders.

4. Internet Gateway

Here, sensor data are collected and converted into digital channels for further processing at the Internet gateway. After obtaining the aggregated and digitized data, the gateway transmits it through the Internet so that it can be further processed before uploading it to the cloud. The gateway is still a part of the edge data collection system. It is adjacent to actuators and sensors, and performs preliminary data processing at the edge.

Gateways can be deployed as hardware or software:

hardware: The hardware gateway is an autonomous device. It provides wired (analog and digital) and wireless interfaces for downstream sensor connection. Internet connection is also provided, whether locally or through a standard link to a router.

software: On a PC, you can install a software gateway instead of connecting a hardware gateway. The software runs in the background or foreground, and provides upstream and downstream communication links as hardware entry points, and the PC provides physical interfaces. The software-based gateway can access the visual sensor settings and sensor data presentation through the user interface.

5. Connection agreement

Transmission of data across industrial Internet of Things systems requires protocols. These protocols should be in line with industry standards, well-defined and secure. The protocol specification can include the physical characteristics of the connection and wiring, the procedure for establishing the communication channel and the data format sent through the channel.

Some common protocols used in industrial Internet of Things architecture include:

Advanced Message Queuing Protocol (AMQP):This is a connection-guided, two-way, multiplexed and compact data coding message transmission protocol. Unlike HTTP, AMQP is built for cloud connection for IIoT.

MQ Telemetry Transmission (MQTT):This is a compact client-server message transmission protocol. MQTT is beneficial to IIoT devices because of its short message frame size and minimum code space.

Restricted application protocol (CoAP):This is a data reporting protocol that can be deployed through the transport layer, including User Datagram Protocol (UDP). CoAP is a compressed version of HTTP developed for IIoT requirements.

6. Industrial Internet of Things platform

The industrial Internet of Things system can now coordinate, monitor and control the operation of the whole value chain. These platforms control the device data, and manage the analysis, data visualization and artificial intelligence (AI) tasks of edge devices. In some cases, they can also transmit sensors directly to the cloud and back.

Industrial Internet Reference Architecture (IIRA) can be used as a reference for developing complex systems in the field of industrial Internet of Things. Generally speaking, IIRA’s framework advocates enterprises to use systematic methods to design frameworks, including feedback and iteration. In addition, the report suggests customizing the industrial Internet of Things design for specific business sectors, such as energy, health care, transportation and government use.

Advantages of Industrial Internet of Things

1. Improve efficiency

The biggest advantage of industrial Internet of Things is that it can help enterprises realize automation, thus maximizing operational efficiency. In addition, physical devices can be connected to software solutions through sensors to continuously monitor performance. This enables enterprises to better understand the operational efficiency of specific equipment and the entire fleet. In addition, the industrial Internet of Things realizes data-driven decision-making and remote monitoring of all production processes.

2. Increase production

By increasing the equipment utilization rate, organizations with IOT manufacturing processes may improve their productivity. As mentioned earlier, network devices provide continuous data flow, which can provide in-depth understanding of the operation of the devices. This can improve the overall efficiency of the equipment and maximize the performance of the machine during the running time. In addition, the use of industrial Internet of Things equipment also improves the utilization rate of human capital. Smart devices can be used to perform trivial, repetitive and dangerous activities, thus freeing employees to engage in other more strategic production-related work.

3. Reduce mistakes

The use of industrial internet of things forces enterprises to automate production operations. Eliminating human factors from industrial operation can eliminate the inefficiency that leads to defective products exiting the assembly line. With the reduction of quality defects, the profitability of enterprises will be improved due to the improvement of customer satisfaction and brand awareness.

4. Forecast maintenance requirements

Predictive maintenance is a strategy to avoid asset failure by analyzing production data to find patterns and predict upcoming problems.

The sensor of industrial Internet of Things can be integrated into industrial equipment, which can send out state-based management notice. These sensors record the temperature, humidity and other environmental variables in the work area, as well as the influence of material composition and transportation factors on transportation. All these data are useful for predictive maintenance. Therefore, asset failures can be avoided, expenses can be reduced, and machine downtime can be minimized.

5, to ensure the safety of workers

Intelligent manufacturing can achieve higher security, and all industrial IOT sensors cooperate to monitor the safety of employees and workplaces. Comprehensive safety system can protect workplace, production line and personnel. Once an accident happens, the whole facility can be notified, activities can be stopped, and senior management can mediate to solve the problem. This incident may also produce useful information, which can be used to avoid similar incidents in the future.

6, save energy costs

Industrial operation is the main source of global power supply, which is not conducive to sustainable development and the overall bottom line. Using sensors and small devices to continuously monitor the system may find inefficiencies that lead to waste. This includes not only monitoring equipment, but also comprehensive services, such as adjusting the temperature, water use, humidity and lighting of equipment. In addition, with the development of Internet of Things technology, sensors consume less energy, which is undoubtedly a boon.

7. Improve on-site service and customer experience.

Industrial Internet of Things can help improve the provision of on-site services. It is determined by time, context and technical personnel’s participation in specific service operations. The industrial Internet of Things also allows real-time data visibility. This means that original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), end consumers and any other interested parties will understand the risks and difficulties that arise, so as to gain a positive experience.

Nowadays, the industrial Internet of Things is the main product of large enterprises, and it is also one of the key products provided by major cloud providers such as Microsoft and Amazon Web Services (AWS). Industrial Internet of Things extends the capabilities of advanced data analysis and cloud to industrial applications, such as equipment maintenance, factory operation, supply chain management and personnel safety. Data from the industrial Internet of Things platform can even help to simulate and test products in a digital environment, perfectly integrate digital systems with physical systems, and improve industrial achievements exponentially.

Image source @ vision china

A brief introduction to Chinese businessmen

On March 11, 2023, the Silicon Valley Bank of the United States, which managed $175.4 billion in deposits, collapsed.

Founded in 1983, it is the 16th largest bank in the United States and one of the largest banks in Silicon Valley. By the end of 2022, the total assets under management of Silicon Valley banks reached 212 billion US dollars.

This is the biggest bankruptcy case of American financial industry since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.

01 trillion banks, can’t hold on.

On March 9, Silicon Valley Bank released a bad news:

The bank lost $1.8 billion because it sold $21 billion of securities in its portfolio. In order to avoid the liquidity crisis, the bank decided to sell common shares and preferred shares to raise $2.25 billion.

This bad news caused the share price of Silicon Valley Bank to plummet by more than 60% in a single day, and its market value evaporated by 9.4 billion US dollars.

On March 11th, even worse news came. The California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation announced the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was appointed as bankruptcy administrator to take over Silicon Valley Bank.

Although the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation provides standard insurance of up to $250,000 for each depositor, it is not clear how much this will help the big customers of Silicon Valley Bank.

Silicon Valley Bank is very special. Most of its customers are technology startups and investment institutions, and it is a "to B" bank.

Since its establishment, the reputation of Silicon Valley Bank has been very good. So far, Silicon Valley Bank has supported more than 30,000 startups and more than 700 investment institutions, including facebook and Twitter. In the credit market of start-ups, it accounts for more than 50%.

The business of Silicon Valley Bank is not limited to the United States. It has branches in China, Indian, Israeli, British, German … almost the most important entrepreneurial market in the world.

In 2012, Shanghai Pudong Silicon Valley Bank was established. With the title of the first Sino-US joint venture bank in China, it has served more than 2,000 local science and technology enterprises in China. From artificial intelligence and big data to enterprise services, medical and health care, industrial internet and new consumption, all the hot spots are not absent.

Why did such a seemingly powerful and reputable bank collapse suddenly?

The answer is related to a key word:Federal reserve.

During the COVID-19 epidemic, in order to stimulate the economy, the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve passed a crazy rescue plan in 2020, injecting about 5 trillion US dollars into the financial market. In March of that year, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 150 points and kept the federal basic interest rate near zero. In 2021, Biden’s government continued to increase the code and approved the US rescue plan of 1.9 trillion US dollars again.

A large amount of water injection and the loose policy of zero interest rate have caused a surge in financial transactions and "stimulated" Wall Street into a prosperous period.

The Bank of Silicon Valley is also the beneficiary of this round of prosperity. In 2021, the amount of deposits in the technology stock bull market created by the liquidity of the Federal Reserve surged. At the end of 2019, the deposits of Silicon Valley banks were only about 60 billion US dollars, and in 2021, it reached the order of 190 billion US dollars.

After eating a lot of deposits, banks want to make money. The general way is to borrow money from commercial institutions and put the money out to eat interest.

The deposits of Silicon Valley banks originally belonged to these startups. Moreover, in recent years, the growth of technology and consumer industries has slowed down, and the financing needs of startups are declining, and loans cannot be released at all.

So, there is only one way for Silicon Valley Bank:Use customer deposits to invest directly.

In terms of investment direction, the choice of Silicon Valley banks is still relatively cautious. It allocates more than half of its assets to mortgage-backed securities.

The return on this investment direction is not high, and it is between 1.5% and 2% in yield to maturity. But the advantage is stability, not to mention that the cost of deposits used by Silicon Valley banks for investment is generally around 0.25%, which is still a steady profit.

However, the policy hand of the Federal Reserve changed this situation. The Federal Reserve, which had injected water crazily before, then began to raise interest rates crazily.

Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates seven times in 2022, with a cumulative increase of 425 basis points. Eventually, the Fed will raise the target range of the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%, reaching the highest level since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.

After entering the interest rate hike cycle, the investment assets held by Silicon Valley banks suffered a blow.

A very simple logic is:Even the federal funds have an interest rate of 4.5%. Who will hold mortgage-backed securities with a yield of only 1.5%?

As a result, the price of mortgage-backed securities began to plummet. At the same time, due to the change of financing environment, startups began to consume deposits continuously, and Silicon Valley banks were forced to sell assets to cope with liquidity, which led to a large number of floating losses in Silicon Valley banks and had to sell investment securities at a loss.

Until March 9, the Silicon Valley Bank, which really couldn’t survive, finally stood up and announced the fact that it had cut its own meat and suffered a sudden loss.

As soon as this news came out, it triggered a panic in the market, and everyone inevitably thought that there would be a big problem in the liquidity of Silicon Valley banks.

The collapse of the whole system of Silicon Valley banks inevitably happened.

02 Wall Street, chilly.

Under the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy of "first drop and then increase", Silicon Valley Bank is not the only financial institution that has experienced ups and downs.

During the boom of Wall Street, the Wall Street financial giant Goldman Sachs Group also benefited greatly.

Its net income reached $59.3 billion and net profit reached $21.6 billion in fiscal year 2021, an increase of 137.25% year-on-year, setting a record high.The annual transaction income of the five largest investment banks in the United States, such as JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, reached $100 billion for the first time in more than a decade.

In order to cope with the increasing business volume, Goldman Sachs set off a recruitment boom. By the third quarter of 2022, Goldman Sachs had 49,100 employees, a surge of 34% compared with 2018.

The number of employees in all walks of life has also greatly expanded. From the first quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2022, the number of employees at Morgan Stanley surged by 34%. The number of employees in JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup increased by 13% and 17% respectively.

But the good times won’t last forever. The interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve, after pushing the financial market to the top of the mountain, made it fall down severely.

In 2020-2021, under the bottomless water injection of fiscal and monetary policies, the American stock market was super prosperous and hit a new high. At the end of last year, the US Dow Jones index rose nearly 19%, the Nasdaq index rose 21%, and the S&P 500 index rose 27%.

By September 2021, their P/E ratios had risen to 25.9 times, 39.9 times and 26.6 times before the epidemic respectively, while their P/B ratios had increased by 6.73 times, 5.9 times and 4.51 times.

However, the interest rate hike in March, 2022 made the valuation of US stocks extremely cold. Since 2022, the benchmark S&P 500 index has fallen by 19.8%, or it will be the biggest annual decline since 2008. It’s like riding a "crazy roller coaster", described by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.

The decline in the stock market has also slowed down IPO financing sharply, which has greatly reduced the business volume of Goldman Sachs. The number of transactions decreased by 73%, while the transaction amount decreased by 95%. Goldman Sachs’ financial report in the second quarter of 2022 showed that its net profit fell by nearly 48% due to the 41% decrease in investment banking income.

All kinds of unfavorable factors swept through, which made the net profit of Goldman Sachs increase between -40% and -50% in the first three quarters of 2022. At the end of October last year, judging from the results announced by the giants, JPMorgan Chase’s net profit fell by 17% year-on-year, and Bank of America’s net profit fell by 8% year-on-year.

This is really an ominous sign:The prosperity achieved by the Fed’s massive water injection a few years ago is coming to an end, and everyone should prepare for a hard life.

"Our future life will be very bumpy, and we must be more cautious in financial resources, especially in the short term",In 2022, David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, publicly stated many times that he hoped to control expenditure in the future.

The initial warning came from July. When Solomon saw the bleak second-quarter earnings report and judged that the US financial market would remain depressed for a long time to come, he immediately took precautions and told everyone in advance that Goldman Sachs would probably slow down recruitment and cut expenses in the future.

In September, Goldman Sachs first resumed its annual performance evaluation, which was suspended for two years during the epidemic. At that time, 500 people were laid off, and those who kept their jobs later found that their year-end bonuses were much lower than expected.

Regarding the future trend of Goldman Sachs, CEO David Solomon’s statement in an interview is:This will depend on the next Fed trend and inflation trend.

With the overall income of Wall Street investment banking business shrinking by about 40%, the largest banks have said that they will continue to lay off employees, and the whole industry is at the forefront of layoffs and optimization.

"Some people will be fired. We are laying off employees moderately around the world. For most enterprises, this is the situation after many years of development. "Following Goldman Sachs, james gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley, also announced the layoff plan to the media.

Morgan Stanley has nearly 82,000 employees, and this time it announced about 1,600 layoffs, accounting for 2% of its total employees. In November 2022, the financial report data released by Morgan Stanley showed that its profit in the third quarter of fiscal year fell by 29% and its revenue fell by 12%.

Under such circumstances, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and other financial institutions are also considering cutting bonuses by one third or more. The incentive pay of wall street investment banks may drop by more than 45% as a whole.

Closely accompanied by the coldness of investment banks, there are deep worries about the prosperity and decline of the US stock market and anxiety about the Fed’s continued interest rate hike.What’s more, Wall Street generally has no hope for next year’s US economic forecast.

"The US stock market will usher in the worst year since the global financial crisis, and corporate profits will also suffer the same fate",Mike Wilson, chief US stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, warned the outside world.

The uncertain prospects of global economic growth make investors hesitate to invest for a long time. "We must assume that we will have some rough times in the future," David Solomon told the media. "We must be more cautious about financial resources and organizational scale.

On November 30, 2022, Powell once again publicly stated to the public that the fight against inflation in the United States is "far from over" and the Fed’s interest rate hike means "will continue for some time". He believes that,"In order to control inflation, we can even sacrifice certain employment and economy."

Continued aggressive interest rate hikes have made the market’s expectations of the US economic recession increase day by day. However, Biden said that the current economic slowdown is "not surprising" and he insisted that "the United States is still on the right path". And insist that even if there is a recession in the American economy in the future, it will be a very "slight" recession.

Wilson was very worried about the recent signs of weakness in the American economy under the warning of a recession. Perhaps the only good news is that Wilson assured the public that "fortunately, there are no signs of systemic financial risks or difficulties in the real estate market".

However, some business people represented by Musk are not so optimistic about the future.

Elon musk, CEO of Tesla, has warned people on many occasions that the US economy may face a serious recession lasting for one to two years. On November 30th, he wrote on Twitter again,"The Federal Reserve is continuously amplifying the possibility of a serious economic recession, and the US economic trend is worrying".

Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, bluntly said in front of the media that the economic recession in the United States is close at hand. He even suggested that the American people should cut down their expenses as much as possible in the next few months and not buy big items such as cars and televisions.

The pessimistic attitude of entrepreneurs comes from their sober observation of themselves and their peers.

Just in January 2023,IBM announced that it will lay off 3,900 employees and reduce the number of its 280,000 employees by 1.4% in order to divest its medical and health business.

In 2022, the major technology giants in the United States have laid off more than 60,000 people. Many people think that this is the end, but they don’t know that this is just the beginning.

As soon as it entered 2023, Amazon confirmed the start of a new round of layoffs, and the number of layoffs is expected to reach 18,000, making it the largest layoffs in Amazon history;

Microsoft announced that it will lay off 10,000 employees at the end of March, and Google will lay off 12,000 people. Twitter’s goal is to reduce the total number of employees to the pre-IPO level.

Dr. Rouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted the financial tsunami in 2008, is even more pessimistic. He believes that the US economy will not only face inflation and fall into recession, but also usher in a "stagflation debt crisis".

"High inflation will bring higher interest rates, slow growth and weak labor market conditions, and it will also bring pain to families and enterprises," Powell explained to the public.

"We must control inflation. I hope there is a painless way to do this. But it didn’t. "

03 real estate, hidden worries reappear

As a core fixed asset, American real estate is actually in a delicate or even bad situation.

During the epidemic, the Federal Reserve continued to inject water for two years, which led to the financial prosperity and even the bubble on Wall Street, and also made American real estate once again reach a dangerous height and face risks.

In 2020-2021, the American property market experienced a boom that had never happened in the past two decades.

The term "How much will American housing prices rise in 2021" has increased by 350% in Google’s search frequency within one week.

"The price is almost heaven." A property buyer said excitedly, "Basically, it depends on grabbing. It is common for dozens of people to grab a suite. It is impossible to buy a house without increasing the price."

In April 2021, Mr. Zhang, a Chinese resident living in San Diego, California, told the media that a good house in the neighborhood of his home could be sold in about 10 to 15 days after it was hung up. In order to impress the original owner, the buyer must increase the price by at least 10%-20%.

"Every day, there are about thirty or forty groups of people waiting in line to see a suite. Many people come directly with cash, and sometimes they are directly robbed by the people in front before they get to themselves."

In 2021, 6.12 million properties were sold in the United States, reaching the highest performance since 2006. During the post-2020 epidemic, house prices in the United States rose by 43% in two years. At the same time, the data shows that house prices in 20 cities in the United States soared by 14.9%, the highest level since November 2005.

In the first half of 2022, the hot trend of the US property market continued. In February, house prices rose by 19.8% year-on-year, the highest increase in 25 years and four times the average increase in the past decade. In June, the median selling price of American houses reached the top, reaching $413,800.

Then, the violent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve pushed the US property market to a cliff.

At the end of October, the mortgage interest rate in the United States exceeded 7%, the highest level in 20 years.

With the surge in interest rates, the confidence index of American home buyers quickly fell to 39, the lowest level since the 1980s. In December, the confidence index of NAHB home builders in the United States was only 31, lower than that in February 2007. An index below 50 indicates that the real estate market is in a contraction period.

Both buyers and sellers lack confidence, so that the originally fiery property market quickly entered the freezing period. At the same time, mclaughlin, chief economist of Kukun Company, boldly predicted that the good days when working families could easily buy high-quality housing anywhere in the United States were over. The soaring housing prices in the past two years may force them to extend the time for buying houses by five to ten years.

The rising interest rate has greatly increased the repayment pressure of buyers; The continued high housing prices have hit the purchasing power of buyers. In the end, the demand for house purchase dropped sharply, and house prices changed from rising to falling.

In 2022, the total sales of finished houses decreased for 11 consecutive months, and house prices could not keep increasing in the second half of the year and began to fall back. Diane Swonk, chief economist of KPMG, predicts that house prices in the United States may fall by 15% in 2023.

The sudden slowdown of the once-soaring real estate market has made the value of stocks firmly bound to real estate extremely uncertain. Nouriel roubini believes that the stock value will shrink by as much as 40% in 2023.

After experiencing the soaring housing prices in the United States during the two years of the epidemic, many people began to wonder whether the real estate bubble in the United States has piled up again. After all, one of the keys to the financial tsunami in 2008 was the real estate bubble. Now the United States is facing the double pressure of real estate and stock market, which makes people worry that a bigger storm is brewing.

Many people have forgotten that in 2002, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said,"The prosperity of our real estate market is actually composed of a large increase in mortgage debt, which is unsustainable".

On the eve of the financial tsunami, American house prices rose by 10% every year, by 17% in 2005, and by more than 50% in the four years from 2003 to 2006.

In the five years from 2002 to 2006, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 17 times in a row. As a result, the interest rate of housing loans has soared, and house prices have collapsed and fallen wildly.

The collapse of the property market brought down the stock market and plunged by 50%. Then the unemployment rate increased greatly, and household consumption and business investment decreased rapidly. Finally, the American economy fell into recession. Then it triggered a financial tsunami that affected the whole world.

Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is optimistic, he believes that the current American real estate is very stable, and there will be no recurrence of the 2008 crash and no economic recession. The mainstream view of the market also believes that the rapid rise of the US housing market during the epidemic period is not the same as that in 2008.

However, nowadays, large banks have closed down, technology and finance enterprises have laid off a large number of employees, the stock market has flourished and declined, and the hidden troubles in the housing market have reappeared. More and more people feel that this story is deja vu.

While they are worried, they keep speculating in their hearts: Under the operation of the Federal Reserve, will the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank be just the beginning? Will the United States set off another financial and economic catastrophe?

In the U20 Asian preliminaries, the Lao women’s football team will face the challenge of the China women’s football team. Prior to this, the China Olympic Team and the national team had played PK with Laos. The total score of the men’s soccer team swept Laos 13-3 in two rounds, while the Olympic team beat their opponents 8-0. This time, the women’s U20 played against Laos U20, and the little girls of China U20 not only won, but also won beautifully.

It is very important to avoid making mistakes.

From the strength point of view, China’s football is no matter how bad it is, it will not be defeated by Laos. But to fight against the weak, we must not only win, but also win beautifully and perfectly. In addition to scoring more goals on the offensive end, we should also avoid losing goals. Similar to the national football team, although it won 10 goals in the previous two games, it was unforgivable to lose 3 goals. China U20 women’s football team didn’t concede a goal in the previous two games. Whether this game can sweep away opponents while keeping a clean sheet deserves our common concern.

Shui Qingxia pays attention to the U20 national team. Which players can enter the Women’s World Cup?

Director Shui Qingxia is also paying attention to the performance of China U20 women’s football team. At present, Zou Mengyao has played a series of world waves with both violent aesthetics and excellent angles in previous competitions. If Zou Mengyao can appear in the Women’s World Cup, even if he only plays as a substitute or only plays half-court, it will also be of great significance to the growth of teenagers. Shui Qingxia’s guidance on which teenager will enter the women’s national team and play in the women’s World Cup is also a follow-up point.

It is reported that a few years ago, a former Google engineer developed a conversational AI chat robot.

But for security reasons, Google executives blocked their efforts to release it to the public.

Google is now catching up with Microsoft’s artificial intelligence and plans to release its artificial intelligence chat bot this year.

Google is expected to release Bard, a highly anticipated AI chat robot, in the near future. But according to a recent report, a few years ago, two former Google engineers urged their former employers to release a similar chat robot to the public, and they met with resistance.

According to former colleagues, around 2018, Daniel de Freitas, a Google research engineer, began to work on artificial intelligence projects, with the goal of creating a dialogue and chat robot that imitates human speech. Noam Shazeer is a software engineer in Google’s artificial intelligence research department and later joined the project.

De Freitas and Chazel can build a chat robot, which they call Meena. They can discuss philosophy, talk about TV programs at will and make puns about horses and cows. They believe Meena can fundamentally change the way people search online.

However, Google executives said that the chat bot did not comply with its artificial intelligence safety and fairness standards, and they renamed it LaMDA, which will become the language model behind Budd. Executives have repeatedly tried to send robots to external researchers, add chat functions to Google Assistant, and release demonstrations to the public.

Although CEO Sandahl Picha personally asked them to stay and continue to develop chatbot, Defree Tass and Chazel were disappointed with the response of the executives and left Google at the end of 2021 to start their own company. Their company is now called Character.Ai, and since then it has released a chat robot, which can play characters such as elon musk or Mario of Nintendo.

Since 2012, Google has been obstructing its artificial intelligence efforts, and it is nothing new for Google to hesitate to release its artificial intelligence tools.

It is reported that in 2012, Google hired computer scientist ray kurzweil to study its language processing model. According to TechCrunch, about a year later, Google acquired DeepMind, a British artificial intelligence company, which aims to create artificial general intelligence.

However, due to moral concerns about large-scale monitoring, academics and technical experts refused to use the technology, and Google promised to limit the way it uses artificial intelligence. In 2018, Google terminated its project of using artificial intelligence technology for military weapons in response to employee opposition.

But Google’s artificial intelligence plan may finally have a dawn now, although the discussion about whether its chat bot can be launched responsibly continues. Bard, the company’s chat bot, will be launched after Microsoft releases its own chat bot through Bing, and Microsoft’s stock is rising.

Last month, Google’s Bard chat bot made a factual error in its first public demonstration, and Google employees quickly called the announcement "hasty" and "clumsy". John Hennessy, chairman of Alphabet, agrees that Google’s chat bots are "not really ready to launch products".

In the early morning of March 12th, Beijing time, the 27th round of Premier League continued, and Manchester City played away against Crystal Palace. In the first half, Rodley’s shot was saved by Guaita, and in the second half, Foden’s free kick was saved by Guaita. Then Alvarez turned to lead the ball and volleyed it high, Gundogan made a point and Harland hit it. In the end, Manchester City beat Crystal Palace 1-0 away.

Manchester City beat Newcastle 2-0 at home in the last round to win the local derby. However, Nalsen’s winner made the Gunners still lead the standings by five points, making it difficult for Manchester City to defend the Premier League title. Crystal Palace, headed by former Arsenal captain Vieira, has never won a game in the last 10 games, only four points higher than the relegation zone before the game, but they won 1 win and 1 draw against Manchester City in two rounds last season. In the first leg, Manchester City won 4-2 at home, and Harland scored a hat trick.

Although the key matchup of the second leg of the Champions League knockout round is about to come, Guardiola did not have a clear rotation in this game. The two main players, De Braune and Walker, all sat on the bench, and the four central defenders, Ake, Diaz, Akanji and stones, lined up in the defense line; Rodley, Gundogan and B are in the midfield; Grali, Foden and Harland teamed up to attack the Trident.

There is a big gap between the two sides in terms of strength. Crystal Palace directly stationed troops to defend, while Manchester City formed a siege. In the second minute of the opening, Grali made a cross from the left, Diaz headed the ferry, and Rodri shot was saved by Guaita bravely. In the 4th minute, Grali made a breakthrough through a dragon, and then a shot in front of the restricted area missed slightly. In the 26th minute, Akanji made a long-range shot outside the restricted area, and the ball grazed the crossbar. In the 28th minute, Rodley went straight to the left, Grali made a cross on the left, and Aker inserted it and passed it again. Harland outflanked in front of the door and pushed it high. In the first half, Manchester City had 72% possession and 8 shots, but the score was still 0-0.

In the second half, Manchester City continued to exert pressure. In the 55th minute, Grali won an excellent free kick for Manchester City, and Foden shot the free kick directly. Guaita once again turned the ball away. Seeing that the situation continued to be deadlocked, Guashuai took the lead in taking the initiative to replace people, and Alvarez went on stage to strengthen the attack. In the 60th minute, Grali sent a straight plug from the right, and Alvarez turned and led the ball, then volleyed high.

Until the 78th minute,Gundogan was thrown to the ground by Ollie in the penalty area, and the referee decisively awarded a penalty. Harland stood in front of the penalty and hit it, 1-0!Manchester City finally took the lead, which is Harland’s 28th Premier League goal this season. Even if Kane scored twice this round and increased the number of goals to 20, there is basically no suspense in the Premier League Golden Boot. It is worth mentioning that this goal is also Harland’s 10th away goal in the Premier League this season, and now his home and away league goals have reached double digits. Previously, only aguero in Manchester City achieved double-digit goals at home and away in the Premier League in the 2014/15 season, and Harland became the second player in the history of Manchester City to do this.

Thanks to the only goal scored by Harland, Manchester City took away three points with a 1-0 away win and won four consecutive victories in various competitions. In the case of one more round, the difference with Arsenal was temporarily narrowed to two points, and Manchester City will face Red Bull Leipzig at home next week, which will determine whether Manchester City can enter the key battle of the Champions League quarter-finals.