A shares are hot again! What happened to actor Jiang Shuying’s screen？

　　Just now, there was a rare scene in A shares!

　　Today, it is rare for A shares to connect with four hot searches in Weibo. The A-share market is so hot, I am afraid it is still due to its limit adjustment. On January 22nd, less than 200 stocks rose in the whole market, more than 5,000 stocks fell, 100 stocks fell, and the mood was depressed.

　　So, what’s the downside? On January 22nd, there was a rumor that the famous actor Jiang Shuying’s snowball exploded. Subsequently, some people rumored. However, some sources said that if there is a problem with the snowball option, it may trigger bearish sentiment in the market. In addition, the failure to cut interest rates as scheduled today may also be a reason for short selling.

　　Is there any chance in the follow-up market? Analysts believe that, historically, counter-attacks will often be ushered in after the extreme fall. At present, the valuation of the whole market has reached a historical low. There was a rush to raise funds in the late auction of northbound funds, with a net purchase of 1.047 billion yuan throughout the day, ending the net selling trend for six consecutive days. These may all be positive signals.

　　A rare scene of A shares

　　On the hot search in Weibo, it is rare for A shares to have four hot searches.

　　Today, for the investors of the whole A-share market, it should be a painful day. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.68%, and the whole A fell 3.68%. Shenwan’s industries are all green, and the media, social service, computer, environmental protection and light industry are among the top losers; A total of 105 stocks fell, with 1,322 stocks falling by more than 7% and 3,470 stocks falling by 3%-5%.

　　Judging from the pattern of the index, the pattern of SSE 50 is slightly stronger, but it also fell in the end, and the decline of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 was very large. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is slightly stronger than the Shanghai Composite Index. It is worth noting that this is a volume-killing. Today, the whole market turnover exceeded 800 billion yuan, much higher than last Friday’s turnover, but still weaker than last Thursday’s turnover.

　　So, what is the reason for the recent decline? China Merchants Securities believes that there are several influencing factors: Trump won the first primary election of the Republican Party in the US presidential election, and some investors expressed concern about it; Northbound capital outflow has negative feedback on the market; The situation in the Red Sea has escalated and geopolitics continues to affect the market.

　　In addition, some institutions believe that the recent market volatility has a certain relationship with snowball options. This afternoon, Jiang Shuying, a well-known movie star, screened the WeChat circle of friends and posted it online because of the snowball option. But afterwards, someone said on the Weibo: Don’t spread the story that Jiang Shuying’s snowball exploded and ran to the agency headquarters. In the photo, people are obviously filming.

　　However, whether it is true or not, small and medium-sized stocks fluctuate greatly, which is obviously related to derivatives.

　　According to the previous calculation of Cinda Metalworking Team, the concentrated knock-in range of snowball products linked to CSI 500 and CSI 1000 is below 4,800 and 5,200. In this range, the average drop of every 100 points leads to about 10 billion CSI 500 snowballs and 13 billion CSI 1000 snowballs.

　　There is still room for the second round of concentrated tapping: at present, the snowballs linked to CSI 500 have entered the tapping range one after another, and will start to accelerate tapping when they continue to descend below 4,800 points. At present, there is still 8% room, and then the tapping scale increment will reach the peak one after another.

　　It is worth noting that the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks today is also very large. Both the Hang Seng Index and the State-owned Enterprises Index once fell close to 3%.

　　Where is the support?

　　So, where is the support of the whole market?

　　First, the support may still come from the funds of the national team. Today, the turnover of the top four Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETFs remained strong, with the turnover of Huatai Bairui Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF, Yifangda Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF, Huaxia Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF and Harvest Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF reaching 15.113 billion yuan, 9.201 billion yuan, 6.741 billion yuan and 6.682 billion yuan respectively, with a total turnover of 37.737 billion yuan.

　　Since the beginning of 2024, ETF’s continuous net inflow has contributed the main incremental funds to A shares, with a total net subscription of 35.7 billion copies in the first three weeks, corresponding to a net inflow of 62.1 billion yuan. China Merchants Securities believes that the medium and long-term fund placement ETF sends a positive signal to the market, which is conducive to the repair of short-term market sentiment and the improvement of risk appetite. Looking back, it is expected that with the improvement of A-shares, emerging industries and theme ETFs may still be important tools for investors to participate in structural opportunities under the conditions of increasing corporate profit differentiation and structural market; In addition, in the volatile market, ETF is often a tool for investors to contrarian layout and band operation. Under this circumstance, ETF is still expected to maintain its expansion trend.

　　Second, there is an obvious change today. There was a rush to raise funds in the late auction of northbound funds, with a net purchase of 1.047 billion yuan for the whole day, ending the net selling trend for six consecutive days, of which Shanghai Stock Connect bought 739 million yuan; Shenzhen Stock Connect bought a net of 309 million yuan. Previously, northbound funds continued to be sold, and the pressure on A-shares was relatively high. The late rush to raise funds was an opportunity to ease market pressure.

　　Third, the current index price-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) has been lower than the bottom of the bear market in 2008 and 2016, and the long-term allocation value of products such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF E Fund has attracted market attention. In addition, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index has gathered a number of Internet giants such as Tencent Holdings and Meituan. The current P/E ratio is less than 18 times, and the valuation has been at a very low position since the index was released in 2021.

　　() It is believed that from the history of A-shares, the rapid adjustment caused by funds and emotions is often the last drop in the market. It is worth noting that some high-frequency economic data have picked up recently, and once it is favorable for catalysis, the market may pick up at the same time.